My research focuses on how the Earth’s climate has behaved over the last millennium, and what that tells us about the climate changes we are seeing now. The past climate records that I develop come from corals, caves and ice cores, and I combine these with climate model data to study climate changes.
My research is supported by a Queen Elizabeth II research fellowship and Discovery Projects from the Australian Research Council. I'm also an Associate Investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) and I'm actively involved in a number of the international reconstruction teams for the Past Global Changes 2k projects.
November 2017 - February 2018: I will be working in Antarctica as part of the Mount Brown South ice core drilling project. We aim to collect a 350m ice core that will provide a high resolution record of past climate from the Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica spanning the last 1000 years.
November 2017: Congratulations to Jennifer Wurtzel on submitting her PhD thesis Reading the Rain in Rocks: A late deglacial-Holocene speleothem record from Sumatra, Indonesia.
October 2017: Work has begun on the preparation of the IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. The final report is due to be delivered in September 2019, and I have been selected to work as a coordinating lead author for chapter 1.
January 2017: Thanks to Michael White for inviting me to be part of his Forecast program. The podcast of our chat about climate science is available online.
January 2017: Congratulations to graduate student Bethany Ellis who has been awarded the DA Brown travel fellowship. Bethany will use the fellowship to present her research on coral reconstructions of the Indian Ocean Dipole at the 2017 EGU meeting in Vienna and the PAGES Open Science Meeting in Spain.
November 2016: I'm thrilled to have been awarded an ARC Future Fellowship to study changes in Australia's rainfall belts over the last millennium. Through this funded project I am able to offer PhD student opportunities beginning mid to late 2017.
October 2016: All the best to graduate student Jen Wurtzel who is participating in the IODP 369 Western Pacific Warm Pool expedition over the next two months.
September 2016: It's official! A new Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes has been funded from July 2017 to 2023. The Centre brings together climate scientists from UNSW, Monash, ANU, Melbourne and Tasmania universities, as well as CSIRO and the BoM and numerous international partners. Stay tuned for postdoc opportunities to be advertised in early 2017.
August 2016: Our paper on the early onset of industrial-era warming is out in Nature. This is the culmination of many years of research, working with an amazing international team. Thanks to all of my co-authors for their efforts in bringing this huge piece of work together! To find out more you can check out this ANU video about the work.
July 2016: Congratulations to Dr Claire Krause who has graduated with a thesis titled Reconstructing the Indo-Australian Monsoon over the last glacial-interglacial cycle using speleothems and paleoclimate modeling. Claire has been accepted into the Graduate Program at Geoscience Australia. See us in our matching robes!
September 2015: I am very pleased to have joined the coordination team for the PAGES 2k Network. September and October are also jammed packed with scientific workshops for the various 2k regional working groups, so there is lots of important and exciting new science underway.
May 2015: Thank you to the Australian Academy of Science; I'm very honoured to have recieved the Dorothy Hill award. See the talk I gave at the award ceremony on Australia's changing climate from the perspective of the past millennium.
April 2015: I've recently accepted an invitation to become a co-chief editor for the open access journal Climate of the Past. After a number of years working as an editor for this journal I'm excited to step into this new role as part of the co-chief team.
March 2015: I'm looking forward to lots of exciting new science over the next 5 weeks with my collaborators at the British Antarctic Survey. Many thanks to the ARC for the International Collaboration Award that has made this research visit possible.
February 2015: The Ocean2k synthesis of tropical SST reconstructions over the past 400 years has been published in Paleoceanography, and is available as open access. The data compilations and reconstructions are also available for download here.
December 2014: Thank you to the Australian Academy of Science. I am very honoured to recieve the 2015 Dorothy Hill Award.
November 2014: The anthology of 2014 Best Australian Science Writing is now available. It is very exciting to have been included alongside so many great Australian science communicators in this book. Well worth a read!
May 2014: Our 1000-year reconstruction of the Southern Annular Mode has been published in Nature Climate Change. Thanks to the ANU media team for putting together this great video about the work and why it is important for understanding changing rainfall patterns in southern Australia.
December 2013/January 2014: I'm very excited to be heading to Antarctica as part of the Aurora Basin ice core drilling team. Learn more about the project in this video, and follow our progress via the Australian Antarctic Division.
Where I've studied and worked
- 2011-present: Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University
- 2004-2011: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council (Cambridge, UK)
- 2000-2004: PhD, The Australian National University
- 1996-1999: BSc Advanced with honours and university medal, University of Sydney
Images are from coral drilling of Krakatau tsunami blocks in Sunda Strait, 2012
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
Instrumental records of temperature provide unambiguous evidence for climate warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions during the 20th and 21st Centuries. But is this the full picture? Using palaeoclimate reconstructions and simulations spanning the last 500 years, this research finds that industrial-era warming first began in some parts of the world as early as the 1830s. The small but measureable response of Earth's climate to rising greenhouse gas levels during the 19th century needs to be considered to fully account for how much and how quickly humans have altered our climate. Read more in The Conversation.
Tropical sea-surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives
Reconstructions of natural and human-induced climate change over the last millennium are primarily derived from land-based records, making it difficult to assess how climate changes have evolved across the large areas of ocean that cover the Earth. In this study, an international team of researchers has synthesised annually resolved coral records to produce sea surface temperature histories over four tropical ocean regions. The work is part of the Ocean2k project, as part of the wider Past Global Changes 2k initiative (PAGES2k).
Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium
The winds that circle around the Southern Ocean determine how much rainfall falls over southern parts of Australia. These winds also affect the temperature of the ocean and air around Antarctica. This study shows that increasing greenhouse gas levels are causing the Southern Ocean winds to get stronger and pull in tighter around Antarctica, meaning that Australia misses out on winter rain and making parts of the Antarctic ice sheets more susceptible to melting.
Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century
This unique record of past ice melt shows that the current levels of melting on the Antarctic Peninsula are higher than at any other time over at least the last 1000 years. Melting has been increasing dramatically since the mid 20th century and the record gives a clear example of the potential for rapid increases in melting to even small amounts of warming in places where summer temperatures are close to 0 degreesC. Read more in the News and Views and The Conversation commentary pieces on this study
Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history
The Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than any other place in the Southern Hemisphere. In this work we developed the first ice core record from the Antarctic Peninsula spanning the full Holocene, showing that the very rapid rate warming in this region over the past 50 years is very unusual in a geological context. Read more in the News and Views and Real Climate pieces written by Eric Steig.
Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline of sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica
Using the chemical fingerprints in an array of ice cores from around Antarctica this study was able to show the different regional patterns of sea ice retreat around Antarctica over the 20th Century. These long sea ice reconstructions contrast with the short satellite observations of Antarctic sea ice change, which have seen an overall increase in the extent of Antarctic sea ice since the 1980s.
Abram et al., (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D23101, doi:10.1029/2010JD014644. Links: paper BAS featured research. This 2013 invited review paper gives more details about how we can use ice cores to reconstruct Antarctic sea ice changes.
Oscillations in the southern extent of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the mid-Holocene
This study showed that accurate assessments of past ocean temperatures can be obtained by looking at the bulk geochemical signal of large groups of fossil corals. Applying this to corals from offshore of Sumatra and Papua New Guinea showed that the very warm waters that lie to the north of Australia (and are important for bringing rain to parts of the country) have moved closer and further way from Australia at different times during the last 7000 years
Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean
This study used corals to extend the short instrumental record of the Indian Ocean Dipole (the Indian Ocean's equivalent to El Nino) back by more than 100 years. This long perspective shows how unusual the recent cluster of strong and frequent IOD events is; whereas these events typically only occurred every 20 years at the start of the 1900s, we are now seeing events roughly every 4 years.
Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the Holocene epoch
Detailed analysis of the chemistry of fossil coral skeletons showed how the temperature and rainfall changes during Indian Ocean Dipole events changed when the Asian monsoon was stronger than today. Understanding the potential for future changes in the duration and intensity of Indian Ocean Dipole droughts will be important for climate change adaption in the Indian Ocean region.
Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires
Our team were Eureka Prize finalists for the unique finding that nutrients from wildfires can fertilise the ocean and lead to destructive algal blooms. The findings were based on the death of a 400km long section of reef off the coast of Sumatra following massive wildfires in 2007.
Abram et al., (2003) Science, 301, 952-955. Links: paper
My research is supported by a number of grants awarded by the Australian Research Council. You can find out more about these projects in the links below.
Many of these publications require an academic library subscription to read the full content. Please email me if you would like me to send you a pdf copy of any of these papers. You can also access my publication history through Google Scholar.
Funding acknowledgements give details for papers where the Australian Research Council supported the work through project costs and/or salary.
Dey, R., Lewis, S., and Abram, N.J. (in revision). Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in CMIP5 detection and attribution experiments. Funding support from FT160100029 and CE110001028.
Freund, M.B., Henley, B.J., Karoly, D.J., Abram, N.J., McGregor, H.V., and Dommenget, D. (submitted). El Niño diversity over the past 400 years.
Krause, C.E., Gagan, M.K., Dunbar, G.B., Helstrom, J.C., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Hantoro, W.S., Abram, N.J. and Rifai, H. (in revision). Meridional and zonal drivers of Australasian monsoon hydroclimate over the last 40,000 years. Funding support from DP110101161.
NEEM Aerosol Community, led by Fischer, H. and including Abram, N.J. (submitted), Aerosol records of northern hemisphere environmental changes from the Eemian to the Holocene.
Wurtzel, J.B., Abram, N.J., Lewis, S.E., Bajo, P., Helstrom, J.C., Troitzsch, U. and Heslop, D. (in revision). Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia. Funding support from DP110101161 and DP140102059.
Abram, N.J. (2017). FactCheck Q&A: was it four degrees hotter 110,000 years ago? The Conversation.
Dasse, E., and 37 others including Abram, N.J. (2017). Saving our marine archives. Eos, 98, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017EO068159.
Datwyler, C., Neukom, R., Abram, N.J., Gallant, A., Grosjean, M., Jacques-Coper, M., Karoly, D., and Villalba, R. (2017). Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4015-0.
Henley, B, and Abram, N.J. (2017). The three-minute story of 800,000 years of climate change with a sting in the tail. The Conversation.
Hessl, A., Allen, K., Vance, T., Abram, N.J. and Saunders, K. (2017). Reconstructions of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the Last Millennium. Progress in Physical Geography. doi:10.1177/0309133317743165
PAGES 2k Consortium, led by Emile-Geay, J. and including Abram, N.J. (2017). A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Nature Scientific Data, doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.88
Stenni, B., Curran, M., Abram, N.J., Orsi, A., and 14 others from the Antarctica 2k working group (2017). Antarctic climate variability at regional and continental scales over the last 2,000 years, Climate of the Past, doi:10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017. Funding support from DP140102059 and CE110001028.
Abram, N.J., McGregor, H.V., Tierney, J.E., Evans, M.N., McKay, N.P., Kaufman, D.S. and the PAGES 2k Consortium (2016). Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents. Nature, 536, 411-418, doi:10.1038/nature19082. Funding support from DP110101161 and DP140102059.
- Associated article: McGregor, H.V., Abram, N.J., Gergis, J. and Phipps, S. (2016). The Industrial Revolution kick-started global warming much earlier than we realised. The Conversation
Jones, J.M., Gille, S.T., Goosse, H., Abram, N.J., and 21 other co-authors (2016). Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Climate Change, 6, 917-926, doi:10.1038/nclimate3103. Funding support from DP110101161 and DP140102059.
- Associated article: Abram, N.J., England, M.E., and Vance, T.R. (2016). Record high to record low: what on earth is happening to Antarctica's sea ice? The Conversation
Abram, N.J. (2016). Climate's Playground. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2856.
Abram, N.J. (2016). Climate shenanigans at the ends of the Earth: why has sea ice gone haywire? The Conversation.
Hobbs, W., Curran, M.A.J., Abram, N.J. and Thomas, E.R. (2016). Century-scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 121, 7804-7818, doi: 10.1002/2016JC012111. Funding support from DP110101161.
Thomas, E.R. and Abram, N.J. (2016). Ice core reconstruction of sea ice change in the Amundsen-Ross Seas since 1702AD. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 5309-5317, doi: 10.1002/2016GL068130. Funding support from DP110101161.
Vance, T., Roberts, J., Moy, A., Curran, M., Tozer, C., Gallant, A., Abram, N.J., van Ommen, T., Young, D., Blankenship, D., Siegert, M., and Grima, C. (2016). Optimal site selection for a high resolution ice core record in East Antarctica. Climate of the Past, 12, 595-610, doi:10.5194/cp-12-595-2016. Funding support from DP110101161 and DP140102059.
Tierney, J.E., Abram, N.J., Anchukaitis, K.J., Evans, M.N., Giry, C., Kilbourne, K.H., Saenger, C.P., Wu, H.C., Zinke, J. (2015). Tropical sea-surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives. Paleoceanography, 30, 226-252, doi: 10.1002/2014PA002717. Funding support from DP110101161 and DP140102059.
Abram, N.J., Dixon, B.C., Rosevear, M.G., Plunkett, B., Gagan, M.K., Hantoro, W.S. and Phipps, S.J. (2015). Optimised coral records of the Indian Ocean Dipole: an assessment of location and length considerations. Paleoceanography, 30, 1391-1405, doi: 10.1002/2015PA002810. Funding support from DP110101161 and DP140102059.
King, P.L., Edwards, A., and Abram, N.J. (2015) Recognising biases that affect women geoscientists in the workplace. Elements Magazine, 11 (April), 88-89.
Abram, N.J. (2014). Antarctic ice: going, going, ... In: The Best Australian Science Writing 2014 (ed. A. Hay).
Murphy, E.J., Clarke, A., Abram, N.J. and Turner, J. (2014). Variability of sea-ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century. Journal of Geophysical Research. doi:10.1002/2013JC009511. Funding support from DP110101161.
Abram, N.J., Mulvaney, R., Vimeux, F., Phipps, S.J. Turner, J. and England, M.E. (2014). Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nature Climate Change, 4, 564-569. doi:10.1038/nclimate2235. Funding support from DP140102059 and DP110101161.
Abram, N.J. (2013). Antarctic ice...going, going,gone? In: The Curious Country (ed. L. Dayton). pp. 14-19. From the Office of the Chief Scientist and available as a free e-book through ANU Press
Abram, N.J., Mulvaney, R., Wolff, E.W., Triest, J., Kipfstuhl, S., Trusel, L.D., Vimeux, F., Fleet, L. and Arrowsmith, C. (2013). Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century. Nature Geoscience, 6, 404-411, doi:10.1038/ngeo1787. Funding support from DP110101161.
Abram, N.J., Wolff, E.W. and Curran, M.A.J (2013). A review of sea ice proxy information from polar ice cores.Quaternary Science Reviews, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.01.011. Funding support from DP110101161.
Mulvaney R.*, Abram, N.J.*, Hindmarsh, R.C.A., Arrowsmith C., Fleet L., Triest J., Sime, L.C., Alemany O. and Foord, S. Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice shelf history (2012),Nature, 489, 141-144, doi:10.1038/nature11391. *equal contributions. Funding support from DP110101161.
Wheatley, J.J., Blackwell, P.G., Abram, N.J., McConnell, J.R., Thomas, E.R. and Wolff, E.W. (2012). Automated ice-core layer-counting with strong univariate signals. Climate of the Past 8, 1869-1879, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1869-2012
Abram, N.J., Mulvaney, R. and Arrowsmith, C (2011). Environmental signals in a highly resolved ice core from James Ross Island, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research. 116, D20116, doi:10.1029/2011JD016147
D’Arrigo R., Abram N.J., Ummenhoffer C., Palmer J. and Mudelsee M. (2011). Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics. Climate Dynamics 36, 451-462, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0717-2.
Gagan, M.K. and Abram, N.J. (2011). Stable isotopes and trace elements. In Hopley, D. (ed) Encyclopedia of modern coral reefs: structure, form and process. Encyclopedia of Earth Science Series, Springer-Verlag.
Abram, N.J., Thomas, E.R, McConnell, J.R., Mulvaney, R., Bracegirdle, T.J., Sime, L.C., and Aristarain, A.J. (2010). Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline of sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, D23101, doi:10.1029/2010JD014644.
Rothlisberger R., Crosta X., Abram N.J., Armand L. and Wolff E.W. (2010). Potential and limitations of marine and ice core proxies: An example from the Indian Ocean sector. Quaternary Science Reviews 29, 296-302, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.10.005.
Abram N.J., McGregor H.V., Gagan M.K. Hantoro W.S. and Suwargadi B.W. (2009). Oscillations in the southern extent of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the mid-Holocene. Quaternary Science Reviews 28, 2794-2803, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.07.006. Funding support from DP0663227.
Ault T.R., Cole J.E., Evans M.N., Barnett H., Abram N.J., Tudhope A.W. and Linsley B.K. (2009). Intensified decadal variability in tropical climate during the late 19th century, Geophysical Research Letters 36, L08602, doi:10.1029/2008GL036924.
Hodgson, D.A., Abram, N.J., Anderson, J., Bargelloni L., Barrett P., Bentley M.J., Bertler N.A.N., Chown S., Clarke A., Convey P., Crame A., Crosta X., Curran M., di Prisco G., Francis J.E., Goodwin I., Gutt J., Masse G., Masson-Delmotte V., Mayewski P.A., Mulvaney R., Peck L., Portner H.-O., Rothlisberger R., Stevens M.I., Summerhayes C.P., van Ommen T., Verde C., Verleyen E., Vyverman W., Wiencke C. and Zane L. (2009)Antarctic climate and environmental history in the pre-instrumental period. In: Turner, J. Convey P., di Prisco G., Mayewski P.A., Hodgson D.A., Fahrbach E, Bindschadler R. and Gutt J. (eds) Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment. Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research, Cambridge.
Abram N.J., Gagan M.K., Cole J.E., Hantoro W.S., and Mudelsee M. (2008). Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean, Nature Geoscience 1 (12), 849-853, doi:10.1038/ngeo357. Funding support from DP0342017 and DP0663227.
McGregor H.V. and Abram N.J. (2008). Images of diagenetic textures in Porites corals from Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (10), Q10013, doi:10.1029/2008GC002093.
Reda T., Plugge C.M., Abram N.J. and Hirst J. (2008). Reversible interconversion of carbon dioxide and formate by an electroactive enzyme. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (31), 10654-10658, doi:10.1073/pnas.0801290105.
Abram N.J., Curran M.A.J., Mulvaney R. and Vance T. (2008). The preservation of methanesulphonic acid in frozen ice-core samples. Journal of Glaciology 54 (187), 680-684.
Abram N.J., Mulvaney R. Wolff E.W. and Mudelsee M. (2007). Ice core records as sea ice proxies: An evaluation from the Weddell Sea region of Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D15101, doi:10.1029/2006JD008139.
Abram N.J., Gagan M.K., Liu, Z., Hantoro W.S., McCulloch M.T. and Suwargadi B.W. (2007). Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the Holocene epoch, Nature 445, 299-302, doi:10.1038/nature05477. Funding support from DP0342017 and DP0663227.
Abram N.J., Gagan M.K., Mcculloch M.T., Chappell J., and Hantoro W.S. (2004) Sudden death of a coral reef. Science 303, 1293-1294, doi:10.1126/science.303.5662.1293b
Grumet N.S., Abram N.J., Beck J.W., Dunbar R.B., Gagan M.K. Guilderson T.P., Hantoro W.S. and Suwargadi B.W. (2004). Coral radiocarbon records of Indian Ocean water mass mixing and wind-induced upwelling along the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, Journal of Geophysical Research 109, C05003, doi:10.1029/2003JC002087
Abram N.J., Gagan M.K., McCulloch M.T., Chappell J. and Hantoro W.S. (2003). Coral reef death during the 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole linked to Indonesian wildfires, Science 301, 952-955, doi:10.1126/science.1083841. Funding support from DP0342017.
Abram N.J., Webster J.M., Davies P.J. and Dullo W-C. (2001). Biological response of coral reefs to sea surface temperature variation: Evidence from the raised Holocene reefs at Kikai-jima (Ryukyu Islands, Japan),Coral Reefs, 20, 221-234, doi:10.1007/s003380100163